Simulation and Analysis of Possible Water Balance Scenarios of Lake Bosomtwe.

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Date
SEPTEMBER, 2015
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Abstract
The hydrology and hydrodynamics of Lake Bosomtwe has been studied but not exhausted. Thus in this study, a model is developed using the system dynamics approach to mimic hydrological processes that take place within the lake’s catchment area. The model uses rainfall data for Kumasi as input to simulate surface runoff whereas temperature, relative humidity and solar radiation data for the aforementioned is employed in simulating evaporation from the lake surface as well as evapotranspiration from the catchment land surface. Similarly population estimates for the communities within the catchment area in conjunction with the annual water demand per capita for Ghana is used in estimating water abstraction from the lake for domestic and agricultural purposes from the period of 1984 to 2013. After calibrating and validating the model, the resulting simulated lake water level from the model is compared to that which is observed. Obtaining a co-efficient of determination (R2) value of 0.93 for the model, both land use(s)/land cover and climate scenarios are developed for the assessment of possible potential impacts on the lake’s hydrodynamics. The results from the study suggest that there are two seasons (namely the rainy and dry seasons) influencing the hydrology of the lake. Rather than the absolute climatic stance as purported by earlier researchers, the lake is also affected by anthropogenic factors particularly water abstraction for domestic and agricultural activities. However the climatic component is the dominant factor responsible for the lake water dynamics. Of all the climatic components, the variability in the amount of rainfall is the major component responsible for determining the dynamic lake water level behaviour (noise) observed. Finally, whiles the magnitude of water losses is driven by both climatic and anthropogenic forces at present, it is very possible that in the near future, the lake’s water level depreciation will be by far due to anthropogenic pressures as compared to the climatic.
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A thesis submitted to the Department of Materials Engineering Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST) in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, Faculty of Chemical and Materials Engineering, College of Engineering.
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