Time Series Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents in Ghana, A Case Study of Accra – Tema Motorway, Greater Accra Region
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Date
2011
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Abstract
Road traffic accident in Ghana is increasing at an alarming rate and has raised major concerns. In this thesis, time series with Box – Jenkins method was applied to 31 years of annual road accident data from 1980 – 2010 to determine patterns of road traffic accident cases, injuries and deaths along the Accra – Tema motorway. Models were subsequently developed for accident cases, injuries and deaths. ARIMA (1,1,1) was tentatively used to model the injury and death data whilst ARIMA(0,1,2) was used to model the accident cases data. 10 years forecasts were made using the models developed and it showed that, road traffic accident cases, injuries and death would continue to increase.
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Thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in Partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Industrial Mathematics