Relationship between Selected Climatic Variables and Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM)
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2013
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Abstract
This study evaluates the effects of environmental factors on the outbreak of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) in the Obuasi Municipality and identified other places of similar climatic conditions in order to ascertain population susceptibility to the CSM epidemic. Specifically, it evaluates: (i) the prevalence rate of Cerebrospinal Meningitis (CSM) in Obuasi (ii) the relationship between climatic parameters and the outbreak of CSM in Obuasi (iii) the identification of places of similar climate conditions as Obuasi through cluster analysis of climate variables (iv) the investigation of outbreaks in these similar cluster towns to ascertain the importance of climate variables in disease epidemiology. Data on monthly maximum temperature, rainfall and reported cases of CSM in the study region as well as all cluster towns were collected and analyzed. The results reveal that there were 21 patients affected with CSM in the study area in 2010. Correlation analysis indicates that the reported cases of CSM are positively and significantly related to temperature but not with rainfall. Regression analysis suggests that 64% of the variations in the outbreak of CSM can be attributed to temperature. This result seem to suggest that climate is a major influencing factor in disease outbreak and hence the likelihood of similar situations in areas of similar climate conditions. Clustering methods were therefore used to identify such places. Analysis of health data in these cluster towns however did not reveal reported cases so whereas climate may be an influencing factor to the disease, it appears to only aid the propagation of the outbreak but not causative. The implications of the study are that etiology of diseases may not be solely based on medical parameters but also environmental factors at least in their propagation.
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A Thesis Submitted to the School of Graduate Studies,Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental
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