Predator - prey model of security forces versus criminals in a contemporary Ghanaian Community
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Date
2015-02-20
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Abstract
A Predator prey model is developed from the population dynamics of security
forces versus criminals in a contemporary community.
Using ve major crime data covering the period of 2000 to 2010 from Ghana
Statistical Service, two models were developed and a local stability analysis of
the model after determination of the equilibrium points was investigated. With
some assumptions, the parameters of the model are estimated and the simulation
of the model for various scenarios using MATLAB is done.
These simulations give the typical almost sinusoidal trajectories for both the
populations of the security forces and criminals. This appears to con rm that the
propagation of security forces and criminals follows the predator - prey model. It
also shows that the security forces and criminal activities keeps rising and falling
with time.
It was observed that, by analysing the same point in sequential phases and nding
the time in between them the approximate periods of the phase plane cycle is
found to be 12 months.
The results obtained suggest that criminal activities persist if not the introduction
of voluntary guards.
Description
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics,
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in
partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award
of the degree
of M.Phil Applied Mathematics,