Using Bromilow’s Model and Other Regression Model to Predict the Duration of Feeder Road Projects in Ghana
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Date
2015-03-03
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Abstract
Contract duration is the period from the commencement date to its scheduled expiration date. This duration could be determined using a scientific model when the cost of the project is available. The study sought to develop a model for predicting the duration of feeder road construction projects in Ghana.A case study involving COCOBOD and donor funded completed road projects of Department of Feeder Roads under the Ministry of Roads and Highways in Ashanti and BrongAhafo regions in Ghana was used. The projects used for the study were extracted from the progress reports in the Department Data Base (Secondary Source). Using sample size of similar study (Kaka and Price, 1991), seventy projects extracted. Views of the Quantity Surveyors and the Engineers were also collected through interview survey.
The data was analysed using the ANOVA (Analysis of Variance) for both the linear and curve estimation regression models.
The result showed that Bromilow’s time cost (BTC) model is applicable to the Department of Feeder Road (DFR) projects and is of the form T = 64C0.134. The curve estimation regression models provided a much more useful equation for predicting duration for Department of Feeder Road (DFR) projects. The model,using the logarithm equation was found to be most appropriate and is of the form T = -269.950 + 50.138LnC. This provides an alternative for the BTC model for DFR projects. The developed models identified in this research serve as convenient and useful tools for quantity surveyors, engineers, project managers and contractors with the Ministry of Roads and Highways to predict the reasonable time required for the delivery of a feeder road construction projects in Ghana. The models provide a basis for these professionals to estimate the duration of projects to supplement the current practice based on individual’s experience. The study has shown the models to be useful in predicting duration of feeder road projects. Future work may incorporate other factors and explore the sensitivities of these factors to the duration of projects.
Description
A Dissertation Submitted to the Department of Building Technology,
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology Kumasi,In Partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degreeof Master of Science in Construction Management, 2014