Forensic estimation of time since death: a comparative study of polynomial regression and modified Newton’s models
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Date
November, 2015
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Abstract
Empirical studies have been made into the determination of Time Since Death
(ATSD).This study attempts to briefly review most of the methods used to
estimate TSD and concentrate on the development of a Polynomial Regression
Model (PRM) and a Modified Newton’s Model (MNM) that accurately predicts
TSD and chose the most consistent, efficient and accurate estimator of TSD
between the two. Such a model, when accurately developed, will add to the
security services scientific ways of predicting TSD, as well as, help in civil and
criminal cases. The study found out that the PRM best predicts TSD with
an R2 of 99:87% given the two secondary data obtained from the Journal of
the Indian Academy of Forensic Medicine 2005 volume 27(3) : 170 - 176 and
the Acta Morphologica 2006, volume 3(3) : 52 - 53 (Macedonia Association of
Anatomists and Morphologists). The MAPE, MAD and SSE of the two models
were also statistically tested and compared to that of the Actual Time Since
Death (ATSD).The MNM relied on the use of an iterative method, to determine
the number of times, time (denoted t in hours) changes over time for Rectal
Temperature (RT) to coincide with the developed model of differential equation
.The calculation embodied several parameters /conditions that affect the cooling
rate of dead bodies.
Description
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics,
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in
partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree
of Master of Science in Industrial Mathematics, 2015