Interrupted time series analysis of the rate of inflation in Ghana
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Date
2009-08-14
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Abstract
In 2001, the government of Ghana instituted a set of economic policies aimed at reducing the rate of inflation.
In this study, I attempt to assess the effectiveness of the intervention. Using the statistical hypothesis testing model, this compares the difference in the mean inflationary rates from January 1996 to January 2001 and February 2001 to December 2006.
Using Box-Jenkins method, we obtained Autoregressive (AR(1)) models of the pre-intervention data, post intervention data and the entire interrupted time series data.
Further, using interrupted time series analysis, we are able to show that the parameters before and after the interventions were significantly different at the 5% level of significance.
In particular, the intercepts of linear trend lines were 1.230 and 3.097 before and after intervention respectively. The slopes were -0.004 and -0.036 before and after intervention respectively.
The method used in this study can be used to investigate the effectiveness of any intervention at controlling some time dependent natural or socio-economic phenomena.
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A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics in partial fulfillment of the requirments for the award of Master of Science degree in Mathematics.