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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/9981

Title: Forecasting mortality rate: the perspective of KNUST GUSSS
Authors: Boateng, Abigail Yeboah
Issue Date: 19-Jan-2017
Abstract: Longevity risk is something that is coming to the notice of the world. For over some time now, life expectancy is increasing rapidly and pension fund managers are on the lookout. In this research, we sought to the estimation of mortality rate, measurement of longevity and forecast of mortality rates. The Cairns- Blake-Dowd (CBD) (2006) model was used for longevity and Holt’s linear trend method was used for the forecast of the mortality rates. The research models were applied on data from the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology section of the Ghana University Staff Superannuation Scheme pensioners within the period of 2005 to 2015. At the end of the research, mortality rates were estimated by the application of the force of mortality. The estimated rates were found to directly depend on the number of deaths. longevity was measured and was found to go with higher ages. That is, the chance for an eighty (80)year old to live longer than expected after retirement is higher than that of a seventy (70) year old. Future mortality rates predicted. At the end, alpha (0.6) and beta (0.4) was found to be the best forecast point with future mortality rates ranging between 0.010 and 0.017.
Description: A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology In partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Philosophy in Actuarial Science, 2016
URI: http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/9981
Appears in Collections:College of Science

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