Forecasting mortality rate: the perspective of KNUST GUSSS
Loading...
Date
November, 2016
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Longevity risk is something that is coming to the notice of the world. For over
some time now, life expectancy is increasing rapidly and pension fund managers
are on the lookout. In this research, we sought to the estimation of mortality
rate, measurement of longevity and forecast of mortality rates. The Cairns-
Blake-Dowd (CBD) (2006) model was used for longevity and Holt’s linear trend
method was used for the forecast of the mortality rates. The research models were
applied on data from the Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology
section of the Ghana University Staff Superannuation Scheme pensioners within
the period of 2005 to 2015. At the end of the research, mortality rates were
estimated by the application of the force of mortality. The estimated rates were
found to directly depend on the number of deaths. longevity was measured and
was found to go with higher ages. That is, the chance for an eighty (80)year
old to live longer than expected after retirement is higher than that of a seventy
(70) year old. Future mortality rates predicted. At the end, alpha (0.6) and beta
(0.4) was found to be the best forecast point with future mortality rates ranging
between 0.010 and 0.017.
Description
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics,
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology In
partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Philosophy in Actuarial Science,