The Trend Analysis of Timber Species Harvesting in Forest Reserves in Ghana

Thumbnail Image
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Ghana has established 266 forest reserves of which 216 fall within the High Forest Zone (HFZ) and covers an area of 1,634,100 Hectares. The sustainable production of timber to provide a perpetual flow of wood products to domestic and export markets and provide revenue for the resource owners is very important in forest management. The study identifies the trend on timber exploitation in Ghana’s forest reserves, using data on timber exploited from Sefwi Wiawso Forest District. This study also develops method of interpreting the changing demand of timber in Ghana with time series for the period between 1998-2011, the methods employed monitor’s trends on removal of timber. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models were developed on data on volume of timber extracted. The model selected for volume and stems were ARIMA (2,1,0) and ARIMA (2,1,0)respectively, based on the diagnostics of the residuals of each model and Minimum Information Criteria. Forecasting with ARIMA(2,1,0) for volume and ARIMA(2,1,0) for stems model for the period January, 1998 to December, 2011 agree well with the observation data series collected over the period.
A Dissertation submitted to the Department of Mathematics in Partial fulfillment of the requirements for the award Of Degree Master of Science (Msc) in Industrial Mathematics College of Sciences Institute of Distance Learning (Idl). August,2013