MODELING THE INFECTION DYNAMICS OF ONCHOCERCIASIS AND ITS TREATMENT
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Date
2017-04-05
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
World Scientific Publishing Company
Abstract
Onchocerciasis is one of the neglected tropical diseases caused by Onchocerca volvulus.
Ivermectin is known to be effective in the treatment of onchocerciasis because it
suppresses the production of microfilariae by the adult female worms for a few months
following treatment thus reducing transmission. In this study, a deterministic model is
developed to assess the effect of mass treatment of onchocerciasis with ivermectin. The
basic reproduction number, R0, of the model system is determined and it is observed
that the model exhibits backward bifurcation for some parameters implying the existence
of multiple endemic equilibria when R0 < 1. The existence of multiple equilibria
emphasizes the fact that R0 < 1 is not sufficient to eradicate the disease and the need is
to lower R0 much below one to make the disease-free equilibrium globally stable. Numerical
simulations are done and conclusions drawn with respect to the known treatment
protocols in endemic areas. The study results suggest that the mass treatment of the
disease with ivermectin should cover a higher proportion of the population to control
the disease and eventually eliminate it from the population.
Description
An article published by World Scientific Publishing Company and also available at DOI: 10.1142/S0218339017500139
Keywords
Onchocerciasis, Ivermectin, Microfilariae, Mathematical model, Simulations
Citation
Journal of Biological Systems, Vol. 25, No. 2 (2017) 1–31 c World Scientific Publishing Company DOI: 10.1142/S0218339017500139