Browsing by Author "Dramani, John Bosco"
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- ItemDecomposition and drivers of energy intensity in Ghana(Energy Strategy Reviews, 2023) Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu; Dramani, John Bosco; Adusah-Poku, Frank; Amanor, Kofi; Quartey, Jonathan Dagadu; 0000-0002-4598-2066; 0000-0001-8886-7853; 0000-0001-5513-4530; 0000-0002-6937-847X; 0000-0002-7333-2300Ghana’s energy intensity trends point to a high energy use necessary to generate a unit of output. The country has also witnessed massive investment in energy infrastructure geared towards meeting its lower middle-income status and achieving universal access to energy. The logical question is: what is the contribution of the cur rent economic and technical infrastructure level to the country’s energy intensity? The current study addresses this question by employing the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index I (LMDI) to decompose energy intensity in Ghana from 2000 to 2020 to examine its trends and sources. The impact of economic-technical factors on aggregate energy intensity in Ghana is then investigated with the aid of the ARDL estimation technique to unearth potential asymmetric and symmetric effects. The decomposition analysis indicates an oscillating pattern in energy in tensity in Ghana promoted by structural effect and labour productivity respectively. The results suggest that renewable energy, rural electrification, and digitisation have a direct and secondary long-run asymmetric effect on aggregate energy intensity with labour productivity and household consumption working as the transmission channels. The study recommends the need for government to pursue clean and eco-friendly practices in its economic development agenda for a meaningful reduction in energy intensity.
- ItemDeterminants of electricity demand in Ghana: the role of power crises(International Journal of Sustainable Energy, 2021) Adusah-Poku, Frank; Dramani, John Bosco; Adjei-Mantey, Kwame; 0000-0001-5513-4530; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0003-2609-7739
- ItemDoes energy consumption improve human capital development? Empirical evidence from panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag in Africa(OPEC Energy Review, 2023) Dramani, John Bosco; Tetteh, Bright; Sulemana, Mahawiya; Aawarr, Godfred; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0003-3121-3618; 0000-0003-2281-3590The contributions of human capital to improvement in socio-economic outcomes have generated significant interest in its determinants. On one hand, there is the orthodox view which states that energy consumption does not promote human capital development. In contrast, the heterodoxies argue that energy consumption is an essential driver of human capital development. Thus, we explore the asymmetric effects of energy consumption on human capital development for 22 African countries from 2000 to 2018 within the framework of panel non-linear ARDL (NARDL). The long-run results indicate that energy consumption is vital for human capital development. Specifically, in the long-run, positive and negative shocks to energy consumption significantly improve human development. In addition, we find that economic growth, government effectiveness and foreign direct investment improve human capital only in the long-run, while carbon dioxide emission retards it in both the long- and short-runs. We found similar results for oil and non-oil producing countries, ECOWAS, SADC, CEN-SAD and COMESA countries
- ItemDoes the choice of cooking fuel empower Ghanaian women? An empirical analysis(Development Southern Africa, 2023) Adusah-Poku, Frank; Dramani, John Bosco; Adjei-Mantey, Kwame; 0000-0001-5513-4530; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0003-2609-7739Cooking, an important household activity is often done using heavy polluting fuels by a majority of households in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). In this study, we examine how the choice of cooking fuel affects women empowerment using nationwide household level data from Ghana. We examine whether fuel choices could lead to women’s social and economic empowerment. By employing the Survey-based Women Empowerment Index (SWPER) and Principal Component Analysis to construct comprehensive indices of women empowerment, we find that using clean cooking fuel has significant positive associations with women empowerment across all domains and could consequently help reduce inequality to the advantage of women. Other socioeconomic factors such as household size and wealth were found to significantly determine women empowerment status. Both clean cooking fuel use and the reduction of social and economic inequalities are important targets to be met under the Sustainable Development Goals.
- ItemEconomic activities’ response to the COVID-19 pandemic in developing countries(Scientific African, 2023) Takyi, Paul Owusu; Dramani, John Bosco; Akosah, Nana Kwame; Aawaar, Godfred; 0000-0001-9033-0764; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0001-9527-5258Since the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, many governments around the world have instituted several economic policy responses to swathe the real sectors of their economies from the ramifications of the pandemic. However, most economies still remain vulnerable to the pandemic. In this paper, we evaluate and quantify the potential short-run impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in eighteen (18) developing countries using monthly time series data on Industrial Production Index and Composite Index of Economic Activity from January 2010 to December 2020. In addition, we employ a state space model (a Bayesian structural time series model) to estimate the absolute and relative effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities in those countries. The results of our Bayesian posterior estimate show that, in relative terms, economic activities of six countries have significantly reduced during the occurrence of the COVID-19 pandemic, usually between -4.4% and -16%. Our Bayesian posterior distribution graphs show that the significant negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic activities of most of the countries are rather short-lived. This finding suggests that the real sectors of those countries have seen a recovery after being adversely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We recommend a continuation of the policy tools introduced by the central banks and the international organizations with a key focus on sectors of that economy that involves significant human interactions such as the hospitality and tourism as well as the aviation industry which was hugely hit by the pandemic
- ItemEffect of financial sector development and institutions on economic growth in SSA. Does the peculiarities of regional blocs matter?(Journal of Sustainable Finance & Investment, 2022) Sulemana, Mahawiya; Dramani, John Bosco; 0000-0003-2281-3590; 0000-0002-3640-2664The link between financial sector development (FSD) and economic growth has generated a great deal of interest among academics. Some studies argued that financial sector stimulates growth while others suggested the opposite. Thus, we conducted a comparative analysis of the effect of FSD on economic growth between Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Southern African Development Community (SADC). In addition, we sought to find out the transmission of FSD through institutional development on economic growth. The results suggested the existence of FSD-led growth in SADC but revealed no statistically significant effect in ECOWAS. Furthermore, the effect of FSD through institutional development supported a positive complementarity effects on growth in both regions but only statistically significant in ECOWAS, suggesting strong institutions complemented FSD effects on growth. We recommended that ECOWAS take steps to improve both political structures and democratic dispensation to boost the development of the financial sector.
- ItemEffect of oil price volatility on the trade balance in sub-Saharan Africa(OPEC Energy Review, 2022-09) Forson, Priscilla; Dramani, John Bosco; Frimpong, Prince Boakye; Arthur, Eric; Sulemana, Mahawiya; 0000-0002-4863-7065; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0002-2829-9257; 0000-0003-2327-1797; 0000-0003-2281-3590Crude oil price volatility as an important driver of the trade balance of economies has been widely documented in the literature. However, studies on the effect of oil price volatility on the trade balance in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) are limited. In this paper, we explore the effect of crude oil price volatility on the trade balance across 34 SSA countries using Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Common Correlated Effect Pooled Mean Group (CCEPMG) estimators for the period January 2004 to December 2017. We find that crude oil price volatility exerts a negative effect on the trade balance of SSA countries. We further demonstrate that inflation, interest rates and exchange rates are significant transmission channels for oil price volatility to impact trade balance. We suggest that policymakers hedge as well as adopt price-smoothing schemes to minimise the volatility of oil prices on trade balance. Again, countries should adopt an inflation-targeting regime to ensure the stability of the general price level. Finally, central banks of the respective countries should apply a combination of foreign exchange market interventions and interest rate changes to reduce the effect of oil price volatility on their trade balance when the exchange rate is taken into account.
- ItemEffects of trade liberalization on the global decoupling and decomposition of CO2 emissions from economic growth(Heliyon, 2024) Baajike, Franklin Bedakiyiba; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu; Dramani, John Bosco; Amanor, Kofi; 0000-0002-1603-5027; 0000-0002-4598-2066; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0002-6937-847XEvidence of climate change is widespread and severe across all parts of the world. This poses a threat to humanity, and the entire environment. Appropriate policies are therefore required to help reduce greenhouse gas emission levels, limit the rate of global warming and its impact on climate change while pursuing national growth targets. This study employs the Tapio decoupling method to analyse the decoupling relationship (DR) between economic growth and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from 1998 to 2018. We also apply the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method on an extended Kaya identity to analyse CO2 emissions drivers in 145 countries. Last, the study examined the relative impacts of trade intensity and trade efficiency on the DR between economic growth and CO2 emissions. The results revealed that regions with relatively many developing and emerging countries (i.e., SSA, EAP, LAC, MENA, and SA) generally performed Weak Decoupling (WD), Expansive Negative Decoupling (END) and Expansive Coupling (EC), and the decoupling process was largely unstable. The ECA and NA regions on the other hand, which are typically composed of developed economies performed stable WD and Strong Decoupling (SD) statuses throughout the study period. The evidence further revealed that while trade intensity, activity, population, output per carbon emission and Carbon Intensity (CI) effects promote CO2 emissions, trade efficiency and energy intensity (EI) hinder emissions. We recommend that developing countries should enforce laws and cooperate with the developed economies to gain access to green technology to promote environmental sustainability.
- ItemMachine learning of redundant energy of a solar PV Mini-grid system for cooking applications(Solar Energy, 2023) Opoku, Richard; Adjei, Eunice A.Mensah, Gidphil; Adjei, Eunice A.; Dramani, John Bosco; Kornyo, Oliver; Nijjhar, Rajvant; Addai, Michael; Marfo, Daniel; Davis, Francis; Obeng, George Yaw; 0000-0001-8766-3402; 0000-0003-2702-6465; 0000-0002-7945-8676; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0001-8886-7853Solar PV mini-grids are increasingly being deployed in off-grid and island communities especially in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries to meet household energy demand. However, one challenge of solar PV mini-grids for community energy supply is the mismatch between the PV energy generation and household energy demand. PV mini-grid energy generation is highest in the afternoon whilst household energy demand is highest in the mornings and evenings, but lowest in the afternoons. This mismatch creates redundant energy generation during peak sunshine hours when battery energy storage is full, leading to low profitability for mini-grid systems. In this study, four machine learning models have been applied on an installed 30.6 kW mini-grid system in Ghana to ascertain the level of the redundant energy. The study has revealed that redundant energy exists on the mini-grid, in the range of 56.98 – 119.86 kWh/day. Further analysis has shown that the redundant energy can support household cooking energy demand through sustainable thermal batteries. With the four machine learning (ML) models applied in predicting the redundant energy, the most accurate ML model, K-nearest Neighbour Regressor, had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.148 and a coefficient of determination (R2 ) value of 0.998.
- ItemModelling the informal sector and energy consumption in Ghana(Social Sciences & Humanities Open, 2022) Dramani, John Bosco; Frimpong, Prince Boakye; Ofori-Mensah, Kwame Ansere; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0002-2829-9257; 0000-0002-0486-1575The International Monetary Fund (2017) defines the informal sector as unrecorded economic activities that possess monetary value and contribute to tax revenue and gross domestic product. This sector accounts for a huge percentage of economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa and given the numerous regulations on the formal sector it may grow further. Since the activities of the informal sector are unrecorded, how does its energy demand affect national energy demand? In answering this question, we rely on the autoregressive distributed lag esti mation technique to quantify the effect of the informal sector on energy consumption. We find that the informal sector exerts a 0.055% adverse effect on energy consumption. Further, we find that education, employment, and foreign direct investment are channels through which the informal sector affects energy consumption. The findings have relevant policy implications. First, since the growth of the informal sector decreases energy consumption, the economies of developing countries should be formalized to spur industrial energy consumption. Second, the national energy policies of Ghana and other developing countries should take into consideration the characteristics of the informal sector in conducting projections of energy demand.
- ItemNatural resource dependence and economic growth in SSA: are there threshold effects?(Natural resource dependence and economic growth in SSA: are there threshold effects?, Development Studies Research,, 2022) Dramani, John Bosco; Rahman, Yahuza Abdul; Sulemana, Mahawiya; Takyi, Paul Owusu; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0002-8261-3075; 0000-0003-2281-3590; 0000-0001-9033-0764The debate on the natural resource curse hypothesis has attracted the attention of policy makers and policy analysts for the past few decades. However, the empirical findings on such a hypothesis have proven inconclusive. Our study investigates the threshold effects of natural resource dependence on economic growth in sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) using both aggregate and disaggregate data from 1990 to 2019 by employing a threshold effect model. The results indicate a double threshold effect of natural resource rent on economic growth. In particular, below 6% of GDP, aggregate natural resource rent exerts a significant negative effect on economic growth. However, as the rents increase above 6% to about 15% of GDP its negative effect on economic growth significantly reduces. In addition, beyond 15% of GDP natural resource rent exhibit a substantial significant positive impact on economic growth. Further, the disaggregated data reveal that forest rents exhibit a strong weighty adverse effect on economic growth at all levels of thresholds. The study recommends that governments within the sub region need to put in policies to ensure that natural resources generate at least 15% of GDP annually to promote growth.
- ItemThe impacts of the informal economy, climate migration, and rising temperatures on energy system planning(Energy Reports, 2024) Yazdanie, M.; Frimpong, P.B.; Dramani, John Bosco; Orehounig, K.; 0000-0002-3640-2664This study aims to investigate the impacts of the informal economy, climate migration and temperature changes on energy demand and long-term urban energy system planning. The elasticity of energy demand to changes in the size of the informal sector, urban population and mean temperature is estimated for the case study city of Accra, Ghana. Elasticities are then applied to estimate energy demand under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). An energy system optimization model analyzes SSP impacts on energy planning. Accra’s energy demand is found to be most elastic to climate change-induced migration and rising temperatures; for example, energy demand is up to 43% higher in 2050 in a worst-case scenario compared to the base case. These factors will exacerbate the city’s ability to meet its sustainability targets and manage informal sector growth. Photovoltaics, waste CCP and decarbonization of the transportation sector through electrification are found to be critical so lution pathways for Accra to meet rising demand while supporting sustainability objectives. However, significant local distribution grid upgrades are required to support these technologies’ rollout. Overall, this work demon strates the importance and value of incorporating climate migration, rising temperature and informal sector analysis in energy planning models and decision-making processes, particularly in low and middle-income countries that are the most vulnerable to climate change. Although the approach is demonstrated on Accra, it can be applied at other scales and scopes globally.
- ItemThe threshold effect of electricity consumption and urbanization on carbon dioxide emissions in Ghana(Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal, 2022) Nayaga, Paul; Adusah-Poku, Frank; Dramani, John Bosco; Takyi, Paul Owusu; 0000-0002-4766-7027; 0000-0001-5513-4530; 0000-0002-3640-2664; 0000-0001-9033-0764Purpose – The quest for economic development has brought adverse effects on the environment through the release of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide (CO2). This will counter the efforts to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030. This study, therefore, investigates the effect of electricity consumption and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Ghana. Electricity consumption and urbanization are among the factors that can be used to reduce CO2 emissions. Design/methodology/approach – Following the STIRPAT framework with the Hansen (2000) least squares threshold estimation strategy, the study employed annual time series data from 1971 to 2019. Findings – The study revealed a single threshold effect of both electricity consumption and urbanization on CO2 emissions. Electricity consumption intensity reduces CO2 emission when electricity consumption is below the threshold (6287GWh) but increases when consumption passes the threshold. However, urbanization exerts a positive influence on CO2 emissions regardless the level of urbanization (either before or after the threshold point). Again, the empirical results revealed that the urbanization threshold moderates the effect of electricity consumption on CO2 emissions. Research limitations/implications – Policymakers have to consider redesigning the current urbanization mode to include some new-type urbanization elements. Originality/value – The threshold effect of electricity consumption and urbanization on CO2 emissions in Ghana is examined using the Hansen (2000) least square method.