Browsing by Author "Eric Kojo"

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    Modeling Water Consumption Using Time Series Analysis. Case Study: Tamale Metropolis, Ghana
    (KNUST, 2018-05) Eric Kojo
    Water supply system is the base of a city development, the protection of people’s daily lives and the indispensable material conditions of social development, production and construction. The rapid growth of the Tamale Metropolis has for years back caused severe strains on water supply to the metropolis. Population growth in the metropolis has led to gradual increase in water consume and subsequent water shortage in the metropolis, which may be apparent over a span of several years. To curtail this continuous shortage of water and to develop a rational urban growth plan for the metropolis, it is imperative to estimate the future need of water consumption of the people in the Metropolis. Water consumption of certain future period usually is associated with the past, the present and future water supply system operating conditions. The purpose of this research is to identify the best fit time series model to water consumption data in the Tamale Metropolis and to use it to forecast water consumption in the fourth coming years in the Metropolis. Time series models including ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data collected from Ghana Water Company Limited in the Tamale Metropolis of the Northern Region of Ghana spanning 13 years (2002-2014) on monthly basis. The empirical study suggests that the most adequate model for the data is SARIMA(4,1,1) × (0,1,1)12. The model is used to forecast monthly water consumption by residents and businesses for sixty months from 20152019 in the metropolis.