Browsing by Author "Paddy, Jonathan"

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    Credit Risk Management in Banking Industry: Case Study Atwiman Kwanwoma Rural Bank
    (2012) Paddy, Jonathan
    The Business of lending is gradually becoming a major target for many banks, as a result there is high competition among the financial institutions in Ghana leading to default of most loans. In order to raise the quality of giving loans and reduce the risk involve in giving loans, credit scoring models have been developed by banks and researchers to improve the process of assessing credit worthiness during the credit evaluation process. This study uses historical data on payments, demographic characteristics and statistical techniques to construct logistic regression model (credit scoring models) and to identify the important demographic characteristics related to credit risk. The logistic regression model was used to design a logistic regression model calculator which was used to calculate the probability of default. Customers’ age, sex, occupation, number of dependent, marital Status and amount of loan collected were used. The results showed that default rate is higher in males than in females, 30—39 year olds have the highest rate of default. Married customers defaulted more than the customers who are not married (single) and the higher the number of dependents, the higher the default rate. The self employed clients defaulted more than salary earners. It was found out that the higher the amount of loan collected, the higher the probability of default. The predicting power of the model is 70%.The model has 70.5% accuracy rate of distinqiushing defaulters from non-defaulters. If one was identified as defaulter, he/she had 84% chance of actually defaulting and if a customer was identified as non-defaulter, he/she had 54% chance of actually not defaulting.
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    Modelling the impact of protection and treatment strategies on transmission dyanamics of malaria in Ghana
    (NOVEMBER, 2015 ) Paddy, Jonathan
    Eradicating malaria from Ghana has proven to be a difficult challenge not only to the researchers and health organizations but also to government .Despite great advances over the last decade, including the training of all health staff to control the disease, Ghana remains one of the countries worst affected by malaria. The goal of this thesis is to develop a mathematical model to help to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the dynamics of malaria in Ghana. A basic deterministic malaria model SEIR model was first formulated. The model consists of seven non-linear differential equations which describe the dynamics of malaria with 4 variables for humans and 3 variables for mosquitoes. Analysis of the model showed that there exists a domain where the model is epidemiologically and mathematically well-posed. Key to the analysis is the definition of the basic reproductive number 0 R , which was derived by use of next generation method. The basic reproduction number for Ghana is found to be R0 = 0.7397 hence malaria can be eliminated from Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable. This means that malaria free society can be achieved. In order to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria, two intervention strategies ,the protected and treated classes were added to the basic malaria model to formulate SPEITR model which consists of nine non-linear differential equations.