A fractional order Ebola transmission model for dogs and humans
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Date
2024-05
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Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Ebola is a serious disease that affects people; in many cases, it results in death. Ebola outbreaks
have also occurred in communities where residents keep pets, particularly dogs. Due to a lack
of food, the dogs must hunt for food. Dogs eat the internal organs of wildlife that the locals
have killed and eaten, as well as small dead animals that are found within the communities
which may contain the Ebola virus. This study introduces a mathematical model based on
the Caputo–Fabrizio derivative to describe the Ebola transmission dynamics between dogs and
humans. The model’s existence and the uniqueness of its solution were investigated using fixedpoint
theory. Furthermore, through the Sumudu transform criterion, we established that the
Caputo–Fabrizio Ebola model is Picard stable. Some qualitative analysis was also carried out
to investigate the Ebola propagation trend in the dog-to-human model. The proposed model
is fitted to the reported Ebola incidence in Uganda between October 15, 2022, and November
2, 2022. The Ebola reproduction number obtained using the cumulative data was 2.65. It is
noticed that as the fractional order reduces, the Ebola reproduction number also reduces. We
derived a numerical scheme for our model using the two-step Lagrange interpolation. It has been
discovered that the fractional orders significantly influence the model, indicating that natural
occurrences could affect the dynamics of Ebola. It is observed that when the recovery rate is
enhanced, such as through the hospitalisation of Ebola-infected individuals, the disease will
reduce. Finally, as we ensure a reduction in the contact rate among the dog’s compartments,
the disease does not spread adiabatically. Therefore, we urge that quarantine measures be put
in place to control interactions among the dogs during the outbreak.
Description
This article is published by Elsevier 2024 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2024.e02230
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Citation
Scientific African 24 (2024) e02230