Mathematical Model of Cerebrospinal Meningitis in Obuasi Municipality of Ashanti Region, Ghana

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Meningococcal disease is a serious health threat in the human body which begins rapidly with a relative high case fatality rate particularly in the absence of treatment and thus is a priority when it comes to prevention. Delayed treatment can lead to death or invasive meningococcal disease which causes complications such as neurologic disorder, loss of limbs, hearing loss and paralysis even in survivors. In this work, therefore the main objective is to investigate the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in Obuasi municipality to develop a model for predict the spreading and combating of cerebrospinal meningitis within the municipality. Using SEIR model we employed the simple Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious and Recovered (SEIR) model to compute those affected ones. The model equations are solved numerically with MatLab that employ Runge-Kutta method. Simulation and sensitivity analysis are then performed on the model equations to determine the effect of the parameter values on the spread of the disease. The simple SEIR model with and without vaccinations were used to explain the spread of the CSM in the municipality. The model has two equilibrium states: the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. The basic reproductive number (R_0) of CSM with and without vaccination were calculated to be 0.148 and 2.0 respectively. The model conclude that, vaccination interventions have a significant impact on the rate of transmission of CSM and other tropical diseases moreover, mode of transmission of CSM in the municipality is commonly spread through the hazardous effect of the mining waste and its operations. Finally, personal hygiene plays a major role in terms of an outbreak of an epidemic.
A Thesis submitted to the Graduate School, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Philosophy in Applied Mathematics, October, 2012