Modelling the dynamics of Ebola disease transmission with optimal control analysis
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Date
2024-04
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Springer
Abstract
Ebola disease is a highly infectious and often deadly disease caused by the Ebola virus. Ebola can spread among humans
through direct contact with the blood, secretions, organs, or other bodily fluids of infected people, as well as surfaces and
materials contaminated with fluids of infected people. This article examines a non-linear mathematical model of Ebola,
considering environmental contamination and safe burier. The boundedness, non-negativity, and well-posedness of the
proposed model are obtained. The Ebola-free equilibrium, Ebola-present equilibrium and Ebola reproduction number ( R0 )
are determined. A sensitivity analysis is conducted on the Ebola reproduction number to identify the factors that affect the
output of R0 . Furthermore, we found that the proposed Ebola model displays forward bifurcation, which means that Ebola
spread can be suppressed by bringing the Ebola reproduction number down to unity. The numerical simulation of the proposed
model without optimal control demonstrated that Ebola can be controlled by lowering the frequency of interaction with
infectious people and contaminated environments, educating the public about Ebola reinfection, vaccinating recovered Ebola
patients, and stepping up educational campaigns against funeral customs like bathing corpses. Based on these, we formulated
an optimal control and a cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted on the model to establish the strategy or strategies that
can be best used to control Ebola spread with a minimal cost. The study revealed that the most economical method involves
personal protection, vaccination, and ensuring a secure burial.
Description
This article is published by Springer 2024 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-024-02020-4
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Modeling Earth Systems and Environment