Time series analysis on membership enrolment of national health insurance scheme. a case study of Savelugu/Nanton District mutual health insurance scheme in Northern Region

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The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) is a social policy; a kind of social re-engineering that caters for the healthcare needs of the most vulnerable and all residents in Ghana. It allows everybody residents in Ghana to register with a nearby district mutual health insurance scheme for their healthcare needs. The research was undertaken to study the trend/pattern of membership registration at the Savelugu/Nanton District Mutual Health Insurance Scheme and also to select the best ARIMA model that will be use in predicting future enrollment values for the scheme. Secondary data was obtained from the office of the Savelugu/Nanton Mutual Health Insurance Scheme (SNDMHIS) from the inception of the Scheme in the year 2005 up to 2010. A mathematical concept, Time Series analysis was used to model the membership enrollment of the scheme and was used to make predictions of future enrollment into the scheme. The overall ARIMA model obtained was . The model was used to make prediction for 2011 and 2012. The predicted values recorded were decreasing from month to month. Findings from the study also indicate that enrollment of individuals to the scheme had experienced an increase and a decrease linear trend from the year 2005 to 2010. The highest enrollment (4,213) from the inception of the scheme was recorded in December 2008. Thereafter, enrollments have been declining gradually from year to year. However, most of other few high enrollment values were recorded from August to December over the period under study and same was seen from the predicted values of 2011 and 2012.
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science And Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of Master of Science Degree in Industrial Mathematics