Application of Bühlmanns Credibility Theory to an Automobile Insurance Claims

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October 18, 2016
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In this thesis, we study auto-mobile insurance claim counts past data for commercial vehicles having third party liability cover.There are various literature on how this can be done. But in this study experience rating was used. Observations of claim events of the past were used to forecast the future claim counts of the policyholders without considering risk factors that are associated with them.The main objective of this thesis is to estimate the number of auto insurance claims occurring under motor accidents using Bühlmans credibility theory. Speci c objectives were to adopt Bühlmans credibility model and use the model to calculate credibility weighted estimates for the expected number of claims per year for each policyholder. Finally, the weighted estimates were used to estimate the number of claim counts in 2015.The R software was used to compute the Bühlmans credibility factor and the credibility weighted estimates for each policyholder for 2015. Conclusively, the ndings of this study revealed that out of the 600 policy holders about 197 of them are likely to make claims in 2015. It was recommend that the insurance company should make claims reservation for 197 policyholders in 2015.
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degree of Master of Science in Actuarial Science,