Modelling the Occurrence and Incidence of Seropositive HIV Cases Model: A Case Study at Korle - Bu Teaching Hospital (2008 – 2010)
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Date
2011-06-20
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Abstract
Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome(AIDS) was identified in the early 1980s in the United States and since then a number of people have been affected by the pandemic. Though a lot of education has been made on the repercussions of AIDS on the socio economic development in our dear nation and a lot of research has been carried out in the fight against the menace, the disease continues to be endemic.
This study seeks to model the occurrence and incidence of Human Immune Virus (HIV) seropositive cases at Korle – Bu Teaching Hospital from January 2008 to August 2010. The data for this research is obtained from the chest clinic of the Korle – Bu Teaching Hospital. The data had a total of 220 observations and five variables under study. In the data consisting of gender, age and month of testing in a given year, the number of positive HIV cases was modeled using the Poisson regression. The Poisson regression was fitted to the data using the SAS statistical software (version 9.1). The negative binomial regression model was used to validate the Poisson regression model in the case of over dispersion. From the results, where the best model that fitted the data had an intercept estimate of -0.6424 which was the log of the expected number of occurrence of HIV positive cases when all other variables in the model are evaluated at zero, the number of occurrence of HIV positive cases for females was more than that of males. Also Adolescents between the ages of 35 -39 years have a higher incidence rate of HIV positive cases.
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A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of Master of Philosophy in Mathematics
Keywords
AIDS, HIV, SERPOSITIVE, POISSON REGRESSION, OVRDISPERSSION, NEGATIVE BINOMIAL REGRESSION