Inventory Control Modeling for Water Level Scheduling: the Case Study of Akosombo Dam, Ghana

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The thesis is a construction of quantitative models to serve as some of control measures or policies for managers of Akosombo dam to determine optimal energy generation and water quantity release scheduling from the dam all times. The data used for the thesis was collected from the Transmission Systems Department, Volta River Authority, Ghana. The data were daily time series of Akosombo dam water levels from 1998-2007 and daily data of energy generated from Akosombo dam from 2000 to 2007. First order and second order autoregressive models were formulated using least-square fitting method purposely for forecasting future daily dam water levels even though series is random. Furthermore, inventory analysis was performed on the data collected to produce optimal energy demand and optimal release quantity of water from the dam in a sustainable way and control options for the management of the dam. Finally, queue theoretic concept was used to model the occurrence of queue of water in the Akosombo dam. Probability of queue of water (traffic intensity) and probability of no queue (stockout probability) throughout a year at 68%and 95% service levels were determined.
A Thesis Submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science, 2009