Time Series Analysis of Microwave Transmission on the Yeji-Salaga Line-Of-Sight Telecommunication Link

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Microwave links, which are used for communication, are mostly over land. The behaviour of the links over a water body depends on various factors such as atmospheric conditions, water body behaviour and the environment in which the link is operated. The Yeji-Salaga Line-of-Sight (LOS) microwave telecommunication link is along the Volta Lake. This study therefore aimed at investigating the microwave transmission on the Yeji-Salaga link using a time series Analysis. Sequence of observations of Received Signal Level (RSL) data were collected over five years between January, 2006 and December, 2010. The data was aggregated to obtain average monthly data. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) models were developed on the RSL data collected. The most suitable model selected was SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 2)12 based on the diagnostics of the residuals of each model and the minimum Information Criteria. Forecasting with the SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 2)12 model for the period January, 2011 to July, 2011 agrees well with the observed data series collected over the same period. The results showed that SARIMA (1, 1, 1) x (0, 1, 2)12 model can be used to predict the performance of a microwave transmission link.
A thesis submitted to the School of Graduate Studies, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology, Kumasi, in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the Degree of Master of Science, 2011