Markov Chain Analysis Of Rainfall Pattern In The South Eastern Coast Of Ghana

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This study develops an objective rainfall pattern assessment through Markov chain analysis using daily rainfall data from 1980 to 2010 for five towns along the south eastern coastal belt of Ghana namely Keta, Akatsi, Akuse, Accra and Cape Coast. The transitional matrices were computed for each town and each month using the conditional probability of rain or no rain on a particular day given that it rained or did not rain on the previous day. The steady state transition matrices and the steady state probability vectors were also computed for each town and each month. It was found that, the rainy or dry season pattern observed using the monthly steady state rainfall vectors tended to reflect the monthly rainfall time series trajectory. In particular, for Accra, the rainy season was observed to be in the months of May to June and September to October. Also, it was observed that the probability of rainfall tended to increase from east to west along the south eastern coast of Ghana.
A Thesis Submitted To The Department Of Mathematics Kwame Nkrumah University Of Science And Technology- Kumasi In Partial Fulfillment Of Award Of Master’s Of Science Degree In Industrial Mathematics