Does the data tell the true story? A modelling assessment of early COVID-19 pandemic suppression and mitigation strategies in Ghana
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2021
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Plose One
Abstract
This paper uses publicly available data and various statistical models to estimate the basic
reproduction number (R0) and other disease parameters for Ghana’s early COVID-19 pan demic outbreak. We also test the effectiveness of government imposition of public health
measures to reduce the risk of transmission and impact of the pandemic, especially in the
early phase. R0 is estimated from the statistical model as 3.21 using a 0.147 estimated
growth rate [95% C.I.: 0.137–0.157] and a 15-day time to recovery after COVID-19 infection.
This estimate of the initial R0 is consistent with others reported in the literature from other
parts of Africa, China and Europe. Our results also indicate that COVID-19 transmission
reduced consistently in Ghana after the imposition of public health interventions—such as
border restrictions, intra-city movement, quarantine and isolation—during the first phase of
the pandemic from March to May 2020. However, the time-dependent reproduction number
(Rt) beyond mid-May 2020 does not represent the true situation, given that there was not a
consistent testing regime in place. This is also confirmed by our Jack-knife bootstrap esti mates which show that the positivity rate over-estimates the true incidence rate from mid May 2020. Given concerns about virus mutations, delays in vaccination and a possible new
wave of the pandemic, there is a need for systematic testing of a representative sample of
the population to monitor the reproduction number. There is also an urgent need to increase
the availability of testing for the general population to enable early detection, isolation and
treatment of infected individuals to reduce progression to severe disease and mortality
Description
This article is published by Plos One and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258164
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PLOS ONE | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0258164 October 29, 2021