Time Series Analysis of Water Consumption in the Hohoe Municipality of the Volta Region of Ghana

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Water is considered as lifeline of all living things especially humans, hence its availability is a critical component in the measurement of human wellbeing through the Human Development Index (HDI). Its production and distribution in Ghana particularly in the Hohoe Municipality of the Volta Region is a challenge. This study seeks to identify the best fit time series model to the water consumption data in the Hohoe Municipality and to forecast water consumption in the Municipality. This underpins the development of a time series model for forecasting water consumption levels of the residents, institutions and businesses in the municipality. Several time series models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data, and it emerged that the most adequate model for the data was ARIMA (2, 1, 2). There will be no astronomical increases in water consumption levels in the municipality over the next 4 years. It is recommended that the Ghana Water Company Limited should use the model and its forecasted figures in its operational and planning activities.
A Thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE (Industrial Mathematics)APRIL, 2013