Gamblers’ risk of ruin and optimal bets on football scores

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Football scores which serves as the basis for wagering vis-a-vis the betting centres of sporting center, Supabet, Alfabet, Premier bet, Safari bet, Euro bet in Ghana, is influenced by varied variables of both quantitative and qualitative making it uncertain, as the possibility of ruin stare gamblers. Model based on Poisson regression is adopted through bivariate poisson distribution to estimate the scoring rates of teams and probabilities of wins for both home and away using sports data of EPL 2013/2014 season and validated with 2014/2015 season. MLEs approach is adopted for parameter estimations. Red cards, Yellow cards, corner profile, shots on targets of teams as key scores determinants are analysed for purpose of determining the significant elements, while assessing the risk exposure of the gambler through gambler’s ruin theory. The result indicated that, with a higher away scoring rates of teams, there remain higher probability of winning away than a home win, nonetheless making the point that, teams on average perform well playing at home. Corners profile and shots on target was found to significantly influence both home and away play of teams. The study concludes that, the optimally betting strategy for the gambler is to bet bold in a sub-fair situation, while taking a pulse caution in a super-fair situation relative to the expected fortune to reach from an initial bankroll.
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the Degreeof Master of Philosophy in Acturial Science.