Modelling the impact of protection and treatment strategies on transmission dyanamics of malaria in Ghana

Thumbnail Image
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Eradicating malaria from Ghana has proven to be a difficult challenge not only to the researchers and health organizations but also to government .Despite great advances over the last decade, including the training of all health staff to control the disease, Ghana remains one of the countries worst affected by malaria. The goal of this thesis is to develop a mathematical model to help to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the dynamics of malaria in Ghana. A basic deterministic malaria model SEIR model was first formulated. The model consists of seven non-linear differential equations which describe the dynamics of malaria with 4 variables for humans and 3 variables for mosquitoes. Analysis of the model showed that there exists a domain where the model is epidemiologically and mathematically well-posed. Key to the analysis is the definition of the basic reproductive number 0 R , which was derived by use of next generation method. The basic reproduction number for Ghana is found to be R0 = 0.7397 hence malaria can be eliminated from Ghana. The disease-free equilibrium point is asymptotically stable. This means that malaria free society can be achieved. In order to assess the potential impact of protection and treatment strategies on the transmission dynamics of malaria, two intervention strategies ,the protected and treated classes were added to the basic malaria model to formulate SPEITR model which consists of nine non-linear differential equations.
A thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fufillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Philosophy (Applied Mathematics).