Using multiple linear regression to predict banks performance in the Ghanaian economy.
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Date
2016-07
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KNUST
Abstract
Globalization and technological advancement has created a highly competitive market in the banking and finance industry. The level of offshore banking in both developing and developed countries today is evidence to this fact. Since the financial wheel is critical in any development paradigm, the role of banks is even more critical. Therefore the survival and performance of banks is of much interest not only to policy makers and shareholders, but it is also of interest to researchers too. Performance of the industry depends heavily on the accuracy of the decisions made at managerial level. This study uses multiple linear regression technique in predicting the performance of banks in Ghana. The study then evaluates the performance of the techniques with a goal to find a powerful tool in predicting bank performance. Data of three banks for the period 19912015 was used in the study. Return on Asset (ROA) was used as a measure of bank performance, and hence is a dependent variable for the multiple linear regression. Eight variables including LNTA, NII/TA (Log-interest income divided by total assets), NIE/TA (total overhead expenses divided by total assets),LLP/TL (loan loss provisions to total loans),EQUASS (Shareholders’ equity as a fraction of total assets) and External determinants: LNGDP (natural log of GDP), MSG (money supply growth rate), and INFL (inflation rate) were used as independent variables. Results from the study reveal that the performance of the Banks has been highly volatile with the banks recoding negative profits during some periods within the two decades under study. The study also revealed that non-interest income, non-interest expense, bank's capital strength, natural log of total assets, growth of money supply, and annual rate of inflation are significant key drivers of banks‘ profitability in Ghana. However, the size of the Ghanaian economy and loan loss provision or provisions for bad debt did not have any significant impact on the banks profitability.
Description
A Thesis Submitted To The School Of Business In Requirement For The Degree Of Master Of Science In Finance And Investment.