Modelling the Transmission Dynamics of Malaria in Ghana: A Case Study of the Greater Accra Region

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Malaria is hyper-endemic in Ghana, especially in the Greater Accra Region. It remains a major public health problem and requires prompt and effective case management. The Bulletin of Health Information: October 2004, 1 (1), reports that outpatient attendance over the last 19 years illustrates the increasing burden of malaria in the region. While there is an overall consistent decrease of other infectious and parasitic diseases (from 31.8% in 1985 to 19.5% in 2003), there has been an increase in malaria cases (from 37.1% in 1985 to 44.7% in 2003). Patterns of malaria morbidity and mortality in the region seem consistent with those observed in areas with high transmission in Ghana, emphasizing that the challenge of reducing malaria burden is still unmet. The significance of the malaria burden in the region necessitated a formulation of a mathematical model to assess the impact of control strategies on malaria. Our model uses ordinary differential equations to simulate the spread of malaria. We performed stability analysis and numerical simulations on the model and the results show that the model has two equilibria: the disease-free equilibrium which is locally asymptotically stable when and the endemic equilibrium that is locally asymptotically stable when .
A thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of Master of Science degree in Industrial Mathematics.