Application of Statistical Models to Outpatient Department (OPD) Attendance Data in Saltpond Municipal Hospital of the Central Region of Ghana

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Hospitals in Ghana are always overwhelmed by the unexpected high Outpatient Department (OPD) attendance. The Saltpond Municipal Hospital at Saltpond in the Central Region of Ghana is no exception. This reason underpins this study where OPD attendance data from 2002 to 2012 as can be seen in appendix A was gathered for developing an adequate time series model and forecasting attendance for the next five (5) years. Several time series models including AR, MA, ARMA, ARIMA and SARIMA were fitted to the data. It was revealed that the most adequate model for the data was the seasonal ARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 1)12. Also, there will be an increase in the OPD attendance at the hospital in the next 5 years. It is recommended that in order for the hospital to prepare adequately, the forecasted figures should be relied upon in planning its activities.
A thesis submitted to the Institute of Distance Learning, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfilment of the requirement for the award of Master of Science degree in Industrial Mathematics,