Exploring the Need for Developing Impact-Based Forecasting in West Africa
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Date
2020
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original research
Abstract
While conventional weather forecasts focus on meteorological thresholds for extreme
events, Impact-Based Forecasts (IBF) integrate information about the potential severity
of weather impacts with their likelihood of occurrence. As IBF provides an indication of
local risk, there is an increasing uptake of this approach globally. Despite the vulnerability
ofWest Africa to severe weather, and the potential benefits of such a risk-based approach
for informing disaster risk reduction, IBF remains rarely used in this region. To meet
this need, three national workshops were held in Ghana, Nigeria and Senegal with
forecasters, project researchers and users of Climate Information Services (CIS) from
key sectors (e.g., agriculture, water resources, disaster, risk reduction). In addition, a
more localized district level workshop was held in Northern Ghana to explore needs
at a subnational scale in Tamale District. The objectives of these workshops were to
evaluate the current use of forecast products provided by National Meteorological and
Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and to explore the potential for applying IBF. Findings
indicate a recognition that the quality of forecast products provided by NMHSs in West
Africa has substantially improved in recent years. However, challenges remain related to
user understanding, clarity about forecast uncertainty, insufficient spatial and temporal
resolution of forecasts leading to limited trust in forecasts. The workshops identified high
demand for weather information related to storms, droughts and heatwaves in all the
three countries. Dust storms were identified as having strong potential for IBF application
in both Nigeria and Senegal. To increase the uptake of CIS by users in West Africa,
NMHSs will need to develop and implement user-tailored IBF in their normal weather
forecast approaches and improve communication channels with user communities.
There is an urgent need for governments in West Africa to enhance the capacity of
NMHSs to incorporate IBF as a routine forecast activity by first establishing a National
Framework for Climate Services with user engagement as a key first pillar.
Description
This article is published by original research and is also available at doi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500
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Citation
doi: 10.3389/fclim.2020.565500