Forecasting Utilization by Subscribers of the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS): A Case Study of the Nadowli District Mutual Health Insurance Scheme (DMHIS)

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Since the implementation of Ghana’s National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) in 2004, the monthly healthcare facility utilization by subscribers seems to be rising. This study presents an Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to ascertain the pattern of growth. It also presents a forecast for six leading months. Monthly time series utilization data for the Nadowli District Mutual Health Insurance Scheme (DMHIS) for the period March 2006 to June 2012 were analysed by time series methods. Appropriate Box-Jenkins model was fitted. Validity of the model was tested using standard statistical techniques. The forecasting power of the model was validated with six months in-sample observations. The identified model is a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) presented as ARIMA(0,1,0)(1,0,0)12 i.e. X_t=X_(t-1)+0.492(X_(t-12)-X_(t-13) )+W_t, with a twelve (12) months period.  
A Thesis submitted to the Department of Mathematics, Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the degree of Master of Science