Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19
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Date
2022-01
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Publisher
Elsevier
Abstract
Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or
more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model
to study the control of COVID-19 to unravel the cost and economic health outcomes for the autonomous
nonlinear model proposed for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We calculated the strength number and noticed
the strength number is less than zero, meaning the proposed model does not capture multiple waves, hence
to capture multiple wave new compartmental model may require for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We
proposed an optimal control problem based on a previously studied model and proved the existence of the
proposed optimal control model. The optimality system associated with the non-autonomous epidemic model
is derived using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The optimal control model captures four time-dependent
control functions, thus, 𝑢1-practising physical or social distancing protocols; 𝑢2-practising personal hygiene by
cleaning contaminated surfaces with alcohol-based detergents; 𝑢3-practising proper and safety measures by
exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals; 𝑢4-fumigating schools in all levels of education,
sports facilities, commercial areas and religious worship centres. We have performed numerical simulations to
investigate extensive cost-effectiveness analysis for fourteen optimal control strategies. Comparing the control
strategies, we noticed that; Strategy 1 (practising physical or social distancing protocols) is the most costsaving
and most effective control intervention in Saudi Arabia in the absence of vaccination. But, in terms of
the infection averted, we saw that strategy 6, strategy 11, strategy 12, and strategy 14 are just as good in
controlling COVID-19.
Description
This article is published by Elsevier 2022 and is also available at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2022.105177
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Citation
Results in Physics 33 (2022) 105177